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Professor Bob Breunig (courtesy ANU)

It’s the System: The Case for Reforming Autism Supports

The data’s uncomfortable. Ignoring it would be worse.

It’s easy to dismiss stories suggesting NDIS incentives may be inflating autism diagnoses. They feel like attacks: on children, on families, and on neurodiversity itself. Sometimes, however, the evidence makes you uncomfortable for a reason.

Professor Robert Breunig is no partisan warrior. He’s an economist, the director of the Tax and Transfer Policy Institute at ANU, and someone who follows data wherever it leads. What he and Sir Roland Wilson Scholar Maathu Ranjan found earlier this year was simple, precise, and difficult.

Using linked national datasets and exploiting the staggered rollout of the NDIS, the researchers compared autism diagnosis rates across otherwise similar areas. The result: “The NDIS has accounted for nearly half of new autism diagnoses in Australia since 2013,” Breunig writes.

Autism supports now cost the NDIS $9.5 billion annually, up from a projected $1 billion when it launched.

- findings of Professor Robert Breunig

This isn’t about blame, it’s about system design.

Breunig notes that diagnosis patterns changed as the NDIS expanded. Paediatricians and psychiatrists now do fewer assessments. Instead, in some cases service providers both diagnose and deliver supports, creating a system where “those who benefit from providing a service also decide whether the service is necessary.”

That’s not a slur: Breunig says it’s a structural flaw. But, as Health Minister Mark Butler says, “Even at a growth rate of 8 per cent, the NDIS would still be unsustainable.”

So how do we protect children, support families, and save the scheme?

Read the full story online for what Breunig says is driving this surge in diagnoses. But is the government’s ‘Thriving Kids’ approach a better way forward? Parents disagree.

Author’s Note

One of the amazing things in the debate about autism is the big issues we’re not talking about - like starting school. Why is there only one commencement date each year? Why not two? And why are children forced into classes where some are more than 20 percent older than others?

The answer: convenience for teachers and governments.

But how many would benefit if school began in, say, August as well as February? And why isn’t government even prepared to consider such changes? Perhaps it hasn’t thought about them. Would this make a difference for your child?

Nic Stuart, [email protected]

The Briefing

What the sector is saying

Royal Commission into Domestic, Family and Sexual Violence report released

by Mental Health Australia

South Australia's year-long Royal Commission into domestic, family and sexual violence has delivered its final 700-page report. It outlines 136 recommendations aimed at long-term systemic reform, with several accepted by government for immediate progression.

Disability groups welcomes Royal Commission Report

by Disability Advocacy Network Australia

Disability groups have welcomed South Australia's Royal Commission Report. Groups have urged the government to commit to inclusive reform, warning people with disability remain at heightened risk within broken systems.

Supporting Autistic Children requires systemic reform and genuine co-design

by Autistic Self Advocacy Network

The Autistic Self Advocacy Network welcomes the Minister’s pledge that autistic children will remain supported within the NDIS. It calls for deep reform and true partnership with autistic voices to shape future services and inclusion.

COVID-19 boosters strengthen protection in MS, even with immune-suppressing treatments

by Multiple Sclerosis Australia

A study has found that booster vaccinations improve protection in people with multiple sclerosis receiving immune-suppressing treatment. Researchers say the findings support ongoing booster campaigns for this vulnerable group.

New NDIA phone system trial to improve service delivery

by NDIS

The NDIA is testing a new phone system designed to streamline communication and improve how services are delivered. The move aims to enhance responsiveness and reduce wait times for residents contacting departments.

Survey: Support-at-Home program changes

by Carers Australia

The Support-at-Home program, launching 1 November, will replace the Home Care Packages with some updated features and processes. Carers Australia is surveying people on waitlists to highlight real impacts to policymakers at Parliament House.

Safe Listening Week Resources

by Deafness Forum Australia

Deafness Forum Australia has launched resources during Safe Listening Week to promote hearing health as a routine wellbeing practice. The tools aim to help Australians, especially youth, form lasting habits that safeguard mental health through improved hearing care.

PWDA Survey: Changes to the Disability Discrimination Act (DDA)

by People with Disability Australia

People with Disability Australia is seeking community input for its submission to the government review of discrimination laws. A national survey invites people with lived experience of disability to share views on how protections can be improved.

NDIS and Your Rights information session

by NDIS

CYDA is hosting an online session to help families understand NDIS eligibility reassessments and their implications. Speakers will focus on how changes affect Autistic and First Nations children and explain key steps for self-advocacy.

CYDA’s Information Session

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The Wrap

The latest stories

Is Australia’s autism spike linked to the NDIS? The evidence is in

by SMH

Indeed, autism diagnoses have risen much faster in Australia than in any other country. In particular, autism diagnoses among children have grown much faster in Australia than in other countries with similar economies and health systems.

NDIS autism cuts to hit Australia’s GDP

by news.com.au

Cutting children with autism from the NDIS will have a material impact on Australia’s bottom line Goldman Sachs, a leading investment bank has warned, highlighting the vast shadow out-of-control spending on the scheme now casts over the broader economy. That’s a hit of about $2.75 billion a year to the economy.

Queensland family's struggles navigating the NDIS

by ABC Listen

Sharlee Hunter's son was born with severe intellectual impairment and global development delays, and now she is at breaking point due to an NDIS system she describes as lacking empathy and common sense.

The government thinks it can 'fix' me. It can't, nor the hundreds of thousands of Aussies like me

by Advocate

In the last week, participants of the National Disability Insurance Scheme (NDIS) were dealt a terrifying blow: the government is gearing up to "redirect" people with "mild" and "moderate" autism away from the scheme toward a new program called "Thriving Kids".

Meeting between disability sector and government underway

by ABC Radio

Workers in the disability sector say changes to the NDIS can only be successful if what it calls a 'profound workforce crisis' is addressed first. Union representatives, workers and employers are meeting with MPs and Senators in Canberra today, calling for urgent intervention. (audio report)

Amit Sharma avoids jail after soliciting 18,500 names and addresses in ‘criminal enterprise’

by Herald Sun

An NDIS millionaire was labelled “a grub” by one of his former client’s relatives after he was sentenced for “a criminal enterprise” involving the leaking of 18,500 participants’ names.

Albanese backs 'difficult decision' on NDIS reforms

by Canberra Times

Changes that will move children with autism off the National Disability Insurance Scheme have been labelled a difficult decision by the prime minister, as support workers reveal burnout problems in the sector.

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