The mainstreaming of political debate

But Labor still needs to deal with the Greens to pass legislation

Adam Bandt (courtesy ABC)

The vote for the Greens and the Independents went very different ways at this election.

The Greens have presented themselves as champions of disability, but saw their parliamentary representation crash this election. What does this mean for the sector?

The electoral system is just that - a system. The proof of that is that although the Greens suffered a half percent swing against them and lost three of four lower house MPs, they now control the Senate. The reason for that had nothing to do with their vote - it was because the Liberal vote crashed.

The point is though that it appears to have lost three of its MPs. Why?

Well, Adam Bandt always insisted he would not deal with the coalition. He framed the party as left of Labor. It was a strategy, but it came with a risk.

his made the Greens more attractive to those leaving Labor but essentially told Liberal voters that they weren’t welcome. There was nothing centrist about it; it didn’t offer refuge. Moderates listened, and the Green vote tanked.

The Independents, on the other hand, welcomed coalition refugees. They insisted that policy came first; they’d deal with either party, and their numbers appear to have stayed the same (minus Goldstein, plus Bradfield).

Indeed, the only lower-house Green who might survive looks more like an independent (professional, female, older) than those who lost (young, male).

A compulsory preferential voting system almost guarantees that, normally, the centre will hold. It explains why the Liberals lost so badly, and conversely, why Green representation also collapsed. Anthony Albanese has finally managed to achieve exactly what he’s been doing since the 1980’s - destroying the threat to Labor from the left.

That party, however, has never been more influential in the Senate. Labor is poised to increase its Senate numbers by at least three to 28, meaning it and the Greens, with 11 senators, will control the Senate.

The party can make or break legislation. What’s more important, however, is where it chooses to sit: in the centre or on the left.

The obvious path to relevance is by presenting itself as a co-operative centre party concerned about specific issues, one of which is disability. Choosing this, however, risks losing alienated, angry voters on Labor’s left.

No fighting is more vicious than infighting.