NDIS Service Provider HomeCaring has compiled an interactive map that highlights the unequal distribution of aged care and disability services across Australia. It calls these empty spaces "care deserts". The new data tool is free to access.

The promise of the NDIS was universal care. The reality depends on your postcode.

A new national map from accredited NDIS Service Provider (and franchise operator) HomeCaring reveals the actuality of this “Geography of Care”. It counts NDIS, aged-care, and home-care providers in every LGA, transposing this with population.

The picture: dense coverage in inner cities but thin markets on the fringe and regions. That’s where queues form, trips lengthen, and support slips.

Homecaring built the tool using Department of Social Services provider counts (released under FOI and matched to ABS population data) and matching these with “care deserts” — LGAs with high demand but low provider density.

The list includes familiar growth corridors and some surprises. Kwinana (WA), Wanneroo (WA) and Palmerston (NT) sit at the bottom for aged-care coverage. Adelaide appears among the worst-served metropolitan areas. On the disability side, Byron, Ballina and Lismore (NSW) are flagged as NDIS deserts, along with fast-growing Blacktown (NSW) and Melton (VIC).

HomeCaring’s Head of Customer Mitch McBeath says the “data gives a clear national picture of where action is needed most”. He’s calling for government to use the map as a guide to steer investment, commissioning and workforce. “People in care deserts are waiting longer, travelling further and facing concerning delays for services.”

If ministers want shorter waits and steadier outcomes, the actions are straightforward: publish LGA targets for Support at Home and NDIS market stewardship, tied to provider density and wait-time metrics.

If the NDIS really is a demand-driven system, the map provides a clear guide for new business operators.

NDIS reforms are supposed to rebuild trust by improving outcomes. Canberra already has an official “Care Sector Demand Map”, and the NDIA’s published “thin market” evaluations. This new LGA-level lens adds granularity. It’s a simple proposition: target where the map is red, not where the politics is loudest.

________________________________

[continued from newsletter]

What the map shows and why it matters

HomeCaring’s Geography of Care is a national, LGA-by-LGA view of provider density across three fronts: the NDIS, aged care, and home care. It cross-references provider counts (obtained by FOI from DSS) with ABS population to flag localities where demand outstrips supply. It’s the clearest local snapshot yet of an old problem: services bunch together where markets are deep; people in the outer ring and regions wait.

The data surfaces consistent patterns.

Inner-metro LGAs typically have four to five times the provider density of many outer-suburban or regional areas. Places like Kwinana (WA) and Palmerston (NT) are, unsurprisingly at the bottom, but even Adelaide appears, uncomfortably, among metro “deserts”.

For disability supports, Byron–Ballina–Lismore stand out, while growth magnets Blacktown (NSW) and Melton (VIC) lag on NDIS access. Are these areas of greater need? Or are the people here more adept at gaining services?

Crucially, the map arrives as two big reforms converge: Support at Home’s staged rollout and the NDIS market-stewardship reset following the Review. Governments already publish tools — the Care Sector Demand Map, AIHW’s regional aged-care dashboards — and the NDIA has evaluated “thin market” trials. The new dataset complements these by giving a fine-grained, local, searchable layer which frontline planners and funders can use.

A note on method

No single map adequately captures complexity. Provider counts doesn’t tell you service quality, scope, or what a registered NDIS provider is actually delivering in a given LGA. As a triage tool, however, LGA-level density is the right starting signal because it shows where to look and where to commission alternatives if the market won’t come.

This aligns with official thinking: thin markets need flexible commissioning, not one-size-fits-all policy. And this may be why HomeCaring has offered the tool. It provides a simple, visual tool that people interested in developing franchises can use to identify need.

Policy to practice — what to do next

A demand-led sector supposedly sees resources cluster around money rather than need, but there’s still a need for guidance. By incentivising entry and tapering loadings for new services (or offering travel/transport top-ups where geography punishes), the NDIS can fertilise the desert.

But markets do fail. By using alternative commissioning in persistent deserts (regional and remote areas especially) these issues can be addressed.

The workforce needs to be reinforced where people actually live. This can be done with scholarships, housing and supervised practice in desert LGAs; linkages to regional TAFEs and unis; and making placements count toward registration.

The politics of the map

The beauty of the graphic is that the deserts are revealed.

The NDIS Review made “thin markets” everyone’s problem; the aged-care overhaul is supposed to move funding where people actually are. An LGA-level evidence base removes excuses. Inside Ageing’s coverage puts it plainly: some LGAs have ten times fewer providers per capita than others, and the result is delayed care. The quote to remember: “This data gives us a clear national picture of where action is needed most.”

This map, Geography of Care, turns a broad complaint into a local plan. The longer we ignore the deserts, the more expensive the drought becomes.

Sources & comparable tools

HomeCaring – Geography of Care (interactive national LGA map; FOI + ABS method; named underserved LGAs).

Care Sector Demand Map (DSS/Health; official demand and service locations). caresectordemandmap.dss.gov.au Health, Disability and Ageing Australia

NDIA thin-market evaluations (what worked/failed in thin markets). dataresearch.ndis.gov.au