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The big surprise of the budget has been how Labor has got it so wrong, politically. The mistake didn’t begin in the NDIS minister’s office.

This is a story that will probably never have an ending. We may never know how the wheels began coming off Labor’s grand project - not just the NDIS, but the far bigger project of governing the country.

The point is, though, that since April the government has first ignited a huge bonfire on its left through a botched attempt to curb the dramatic growth of the NDIS, and then on its right by forcing through much-needed tax reform.

How could things have gone so badly wrong that, according to polling, Pauline Hanson now leads the most popular opposition party?

We may never know the answer to that question, but that doesn’t mean it isn’t worthwhile trying to find one. That’s because its answer goes a long way towards our judgment about who can be trusted as Australia embarks on a path to reconstituting the NDIS.

The key date is April 22, in Canberra. That was when Health Minister Mark Butler suddenly announced - from out of the blue - that the NDIS was to be radically reformed. It was a huge package, revealed with no prior warning; no effort made to solicit ideas from the sector in composing it; no effort made to soften the sector up beforehand.

NDIS Minister Jenny McAllister wasn’t at the at the National Press Club that day.

That was a very surprising omission, particularly as the reforms completely concerned her portfolio. What followed has been a significant setback to Labor.

Despite their assurances the the reform will progress, Prime Minister Anthony Albanese and Health Minister Mark Butler are being badly wounded as the implementation process continues.

[continued from the abilityNEWS newsletter]

Bottom line: The NDIS reform fight shifted to an extended Senate contest. The government is still defending the Bill’s core direction, while disability groups are using the extra time to sharpen arguments about rights and implementation.

The transcript of Health Minister Mark Butler’s interview (below) confirms despite its earlier bluster the government did not have the Senate path it needed. Sector response is now moving from broad opposition into practical and cohort-specific risks, as shown by the WWDA and OTA releases (also below).

The key question is how much the government will be prepared to negotiate to improve the bill over the next few weeks. Or is it still determined just to push it through regardless and bank the savings?

Data Watch: Three clocks matter: 1 July for NDIS pricing and SIL/platform-provider registration changes; 30 June for RSVPs to the NDIA’s mandatory-registration community forum; and 14 August as the revised NDIS Bill inquiry reporting date.

Next week is the last sitting week of parliament before the long winter break . . .

Butler says NDIS Bill will face further Senate process after failing to pass this sitting fortnight
Health Minister Mark Butler said the government did not have a Senate path to pass the NDIS Bill this fortnight and supported a further period for people to have their say, while maintaining the core direction of the reform package.
Source: Health, Disability and Ageing Ministers

NDIA announces $11.1 million Australian Autism Knowledge Hub grant
The NDIA said La Trobe University’s Olga Tennison Autism Research Centre will receive $11.1 million over three years to establish the Australian Autism Knowledge Hub, with work expected to begin in July 2026.
Source: NDIS

NDIA schedules community forum on mandatory SIL and platform-provider registration
The NDIA published a community forum notice for participants, carers, families and supporting services ahead of 1 July registration changes for supported independent living and platform providers.
Source: NDIS events

WWDA updates NDIS Reform Bill explainer for its community
Women With Disabilities Australia published an updated explainer saying the Bill raises concerns about access, funding, reassessment, ministerial powers and future rules, and says reform must be gender-responsive and co-designed with women, girls and gender-diverse people with disability.
Source: Women With Disabilities Australia

OTA warns new NDIS pricing schedule will add billing complexity for occupational therapists
Occupational Therapy Australia said the 2026–27 Annual Pricing Review leaves OT rates frozen and that new unbundled therapy codes from 1 July will increase claims-management pressure, while also updating members on the extended NDIS Bill inquiry and older-claims checks.
Source: Occupational Therapy Australia

Thriving Kids program not intended to be state-based, advisory panel member claims
ABC reports that Thriving Kids advisory panel member Tim Jones says the state-based model now being adopted is a departure from the panel’s original intention, and fears the program became a bargaining chip in hospital-funding negotiations. The story says the $4 billion program is due to begin in October, with states and territories to deliver most services on the ground for children under nine with autism and developmental delay with mild to moderate support needs.
Source: ABC News | Paywall: No

Story summaries are based on visible public preview only.

Disabled man ‘freed’ after alleged NDIS provider hostage ordeal
Herald Sun reports that a 63-year-old Melbourne man with dystonia, who is largely non-verbal and requires 24-hour care, was removed from an alleged abusive NDIS provider after a 16-month effort by his support coordinator and a long-time friend, with the move occurring after a public guardian was appointed.
Source: Herald Sun | Paywall: Yes

NDIS might have paid $100 for my disabled sister’s mat. We paid $5
GP Marie Healy writes that her twin sister’s Parkinson’s disease has made NDIS-funded care essential to daily life, while arguing that everyday profiteering and inflated disability pricing threaten money that should be directed to people who need support.
Source: Sydney Morning Herald | Paywall: Likely

Two Bundaberg NDIS providers banned, one permanently
Courier-Mail reports that two Bundaberg-region NDIS providers have been banned after NDIS Code of Conduct and safeguarding concerns, with one permanent ban and one two-year restriction on providing services to male participants.
Source: Courier-Mail | Paywall: Yes

Interim NDIS report shows government hasn't listened, Jordan Steele John says
ABC Radio National Breakfast yesterday carried a seven-minute NDIS segment on the interim inquiry report, with Greens senator Jordon Steele-John arguing the process showed the government had not listened to disability-sector concerns.
Source: ABC Listen | Paywall: No

New tax changes explained: CGT, negative gearing and $1000 instant deduction
SBS explained Labor’s tax package and noted that Greens support for the tax bill came with amendments and an eight-week delay to the government’s NDIS overhaul.
Source: SBS News — tax explainer | Paywall: No

Chalmers' back-downs on tax measures to cost $1b
Summary based on visible public preview only. AFR reported that the federal budget faces additional pressure if crucial NDIS changes are delayed past October, placing the NDIS timetable inside the broader cost of Labor’s tax concessions.
Source: Australian Financial Review | Paywall: Yes