The abilityNEWS Daily
The Big Story
Real Growth, Genuine Spin, but Silence on Costs
The latest quarterly snapshot dreams of a triumphant NDIS. In its boldest claim it asserts community and social participation among participants aged 15-plus has jumped from 34% at baseline to 41%, a relative leap of 21%.
The upbeat headline of the Report (which covers the period from 1 April to 30 June 2025) is that far more participants now report being part of their communities.
But wait. How thick is the skin of that “baseline”? Were early participants really so disproportionately socially isolated? Is it simply the length of time people have been enrolled that has accentuated gains?
Let’s not quibble unnecessarily; it’s a good number, not a bad one. But percentages seldom show the whole story.
The report also notes a 6-percentage-point rise in paid work among families and carers (from 47% to 53%) as if that's a sign the whole scheme is lifting more than the participants alone. Again — how deep does that go? Are families entering the workforce because of supports, or just because the economy is churning?
On children, the report flavours the figures: toddlers to school-starters show 4+ point improvements across all domains, while school-aged kids (up to 14) see more than 10-point jumps with daily living leaping 15 points.
Impressive at first glance. Yet such figures lack context. These are domains that often improve naturally as kids grow, with or without supports.
Meanwhile, for participants 15+, gains of more than 10 points are claimed across choice & control, daily living, health & wellbeing, and social participation. But contrast this to employment outcomes. Only young adults aged 15-24 show work participation more than doubling, from 10% to 23%.
This is, on one hand, terrific — because it demonstrates the scheme is achieving what it aims for. It doesn’t, however, answer the deeper question. Is 23% employment enough to call it a breakthrough? And is the 10% base start so low that the relative growth is overstated?
So there’s a collection of bright stats, but as always: read them critically. How much is scheme effect and how much is this just the statistical tug of a low starting point?
Author’s Note
Today’s Big Story links to the latest NDIS Quarterly Report. This is the golden lode of information that reveals the success of the scheme. It doesn’t highlight failures - but that’s not surprising. Not many of us do.
abilityNEWS has begun ploughing through the detail and cover it in more detail in the coming weeks.
Best, Nic Stuart, editor
The Briefing
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courtesy Hapware
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