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Preferences will be the key
As neither party looks likely to win outright victory
Nic Stuart
May 02, 2025
The abilityNEWS Daily
The Big Story
Voting at Bondi in 2016 (photo courtesy The Conversation)
The electorate is volatile: winning preferences will be key to victory
If the polls are correct - and they all can’t be - we should know the result of the election by around eight o’clock. Every amateur expert in the country - and that’s all of us - will be struggling to beat Anthony Green to discern who’s won. The problem is that both big parties are on the nose and for many voters the decision won’t boil down to a simple either/or choice.
With both major parties receiving around a third of votes it’s the flow of preferences that will be critical in determining the result.
Australian psephologist Malcolm Mackerras invented the electoral pendulum when he began studying election results back in the 1960’s. Since then it’s become the world standard for deciphering election results. His great insight was that swings in each individual electorate for particular reasons (local issues) would always cancel each other out, so there was no need to look at the results in individual seats to work out who would win government. The overall swing revealed the victor.
The problem today is that the traditional two-party vote has collapsed. What counts is where the voters end up and getting them to concentrate for long enough until they finally decide who they dislike least.
So the key to sounding intelligent on election night is to stick to history. That way you won’t be wrong. So what should you say?
Your icebreaker is that the Liberals are up against it - not because of the polls (hint the scatter suggests nobody should place too much weight on these), but simply because no party has won government after just three years on the opposition benches since 1932.
Then nod sagely as initial results show the major party's vote in their traditional seats is down. Point out that the electorate is more volatile than ever before and suggest this might well be like 1989, where preferences were critical in delivering Labor victory.
And finally take heart (or despair) at the independent and Green vote.
It appears probable that one of the major parties (oh, ok, Labor) will probably be able to govern by itself.
But just as every vote counts, so does every voice. Good luck choosing your representative.
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The Diary
