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Grattan’s NDIS podcast lands at exactly the wrong moment for the Albanese government.

Which is the point, because this is not another attack on reform.

Grattan’s disability team accepts the NDIS is too large, growing too fast, and needs structural repair. The Scheme is now expected to cost almost $54 billion in 2025–26 and now supports more than 770,000 people, far beyond the 490,000 originally envisaged by the Productivity Commission.

Grattan’s warning, however, is sharper than the usual response. It says government may have found some of the right levers, but it’s pulled too hard, too fast, and in the wrong place.

Start with the politics.

The Senate inquiry has now been extended by another eight weeks. It recieved 4,000 submissions before just three days of hearings; after which it produced two delays and an interim report. This bill will not even be voted on until at least 14 August and yet Labor is already banking on the savings.

This suggests the political approach was not carefully thought through.

Of the $63.8 billion in budget savings and reprioritisations claimed by Treasurer Jim Chalmers, $37.8 billion — about 60 per cent — comes from the NDIS reform package. The NDIS is not just a social policy problem. It is one of the central fiscal bets of the budget.

Grattan’s Sam Bennett says some version of the bill should pass because the Scheme does need repair. Stronger eligibility tests, clearer functional assessments, better budget-setting and greater government market stewardship all address real weaknesses.

But the danger is sequence.

Grattan points out no assessment tool currently exists that can fairly assess function across the NDIS’s incredibly diverse population. More importantly, people who leave the Scheme will still need support — and foundational supports are still largely promises, not services.

[continued on the abilityNEWS website]

Bottom line: The NDIS fight has moved from whether Labor can force the bill through quickly to whether it can make the next eight weeks look like consultation rather than damage control.

Why this matters: The ABC’s Thriving Kids report sharpens the risk in Labor’s reform timetable. The government is relying on states and territories to build alternative supports, but the program’s own advisory process is being questioned, Queensland is still refusing to sign, and advocates are warning that “foundational supports” cannot remain a promise on paper.

Data Watch: The debate is still being fought around three numbers: roughly $38 billion in forecast savings, about 240,000 people projected to leave the Scheme over time, and the October 1 start date for the first phase of Thriving Kids. Grattan’s intervention adds another pressure point by arguing that fraud and pricing measures explain only a small fraction of the saving task, leaving blunt support reductions as the real fiscal engine.

What to watch next: The Coalition’s position now matters more than the Greens’. The Greens have used the tax deal to delay the bill but still oppose it. Labor’s path probably runs through the Coalition, which means the next significant signal will be whether Angus Taylor and Melissa McIntosh seek amendments, demand a longer inquiry, or leave Labor to wear the political cost alone.

NDIS reform advisory summaries show committee process behind government changes

The Department of Health, Disability and Ageing has published a collection of NDIS Reform Advisory Committee meeting summaries, including 2026 summaries for meetings held on 3 February, 13 March and 17 April. This is useful official context for the continuing Senate and reform debate.
Source: Department of Health, Disability and Ageing

NDIS updates participant guidance on maintaining assistive technology

The NDIA has published guidance telling participants that funding for repairs and maintenance of mid-cost and high-cost assistive technology is usually included in their plan, but they should plan for back-up support.
Source: NDIS

Provider commentary says NDIS bill hits participants harder than fraudsters

Provider blog commentary argues the reform bill is being sold as a fraud and sustainability measure but would cut supports for people with permanent and significant disability while leaving structural overpricing and market problems largely untouched.

Source: Amoscare

Thriving Kids program not intended to be state-based, advisory panel member claims

An ABC report says Thriving Kids advisory panel member Dr Tim Jones believes the state-based rollout departs from the panel’s original intention and may have been used as a bargaining chip in hospital funding negotiations. The story also reports Queensland’s concern that it has not been given enough detail about who will support children moved away from the NDIS.

Source: ABC News | Paywall: No

Parliament has been getting frosty as winter closes in – but Labor may make one more gamble before the break

Guardian Australia says the final parliamentary week before the winter break will keep pressure on Labor’s NDIS bill, with the government having agreed to Greens demands to hold up the legislation until mid-August while the inquiry continues. The analysis frames the NDIS bill as a test of whether the Coalition chooses to negotiate or remains outside the deal-making.

Source: Guardian Australia | Paywall: No

Blank cheques. The problem and the fix for the NDIS

Michael West Media argues the NDIS lacks the reference-pricing infrastructure needed to control capital supports, saying the scheme does not publish granular item-level expenditure data for equipment and home modifications. The piece says this makes it impossible to measure the gap between market cost and what the NDIA pays.

Source: Michael West Media | Paywall: No

Disabled man ‘freed’ after alleged NDIS provider hostage drama

The Herald Sun reports, from visible public preview only, that a Melbourne man with disability was allegedly held “hostage” by an NDIS provider over his $1 million annual package and freed after a 16-month legal battle. The full article is paywalled, so the summary is limited to the public headline and preview.

Source: Herald Sun | Paywall: Yes. Summary based on visible public preview only.