How will the NDIS fare tonight?

The abilityNEWS Daily

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The Big Story

Who is this Budget for? Image courtesy Corporate Finance Institute

What the budget means for the NDIS

Balancing act: will tonight’s Budget tame NDIS growth without undermining its promise?

At 7:30 tonight Treasurer Jim Chalmers will stand up, fiddle with the centre button on his coat (it’s almost a reflex action) and take a few short steps to the dispatch box.

He will be beaming - radiating confidence.

Chalmers is understandably proud to deliver his fourth budget, one he genuinely believes is the best possible for the country (and, incidentally, a perfect perch from which to spring to the election campaign). Yet, after a couple of years of government, it is an almost universal truth that every minister, particularly those holding important portfolios who’ve managed to escape censure, believe themselves to be marvelously gifted and uniquely qualified to hold the job.

Underlying this confidence is a harsh new reality.

It’s not one Chalmers is responsible for, however it is one he will have to solve. Australia faces a fiscal dilemma more challenging than any before. The economy has changed. Our expectations have not changed with it.

Central to this tension is the National Disability Insurance Scheme (NDIS)—transformative, yes, but an increasingly costly social investment.

While recent efforts to curb the scheme’s once-explosive spending growth from 14 percent down to roughly eight percent represent notable progress a stark reality remains: even this moderated growth outpaces Australia’s overall economic expansion of just two percent. Despite repeated assurances from government ministers that the NDIS is sustainable such disparities are economically untenable, forcing uncomfortable budgetary trade-offs.

Tonight’s budget exposes the contest between emotionally and politically compelling programs—defence, aged care, health—and the relentless growth of the NDIS. We may say it’s an investment, but with spending projected to surpass $50 billion annually within a few years, the NDIS has become a fiscal juggernaut crowding out other critical priorities.

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The Briefing

What the sector is saying

“We will be watching” – People with Disability Australia warns against cuts to the NDIS

by People with Disability Australia

People with Disability Australia has warned politicians against funding cuts to the NDIS, calling it essential for independence and economic benefits. Concerns have grown after Coalition remarks suggested further reductions, prompting calls for long-term investment and protection of participant choice.

What happened at the Regional Down Syndrome Conference

by Down Syndrome Australia

Down Syndrome Victoria hosted its first Community Connections Conference, bringing together 14 regional representatives from across Victoria. The event focused on strengthening local support groups through workshops, collaboration and networking to enhance community involvement.

Joint statement on protecting access to assistance animals

by Children and Young People with Disability Australia

CYDA and the Australian Autism Alliance are urging governments to develop a National Assistance Animal Framework with the disability community. They want clearer national guidelines for recognising and integrating assistance animals to support people with disability.

Joint Statement Calling for People with Disability’s Access to Assistance Animals to be Protected

by People with Disability Australia

Disability advocacy groups are urging the federal government to establish a National Assistance Animal Framework to improve policy consistency. They argue current regulations exclude many essential support animals, limiting options for people with disabilities who rely on them.

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The Wrap

The latest newspaper stories

'More can be done:' Coalition eyes NDIS cuts

by News.com.au

Coalition finance spokeswoman Jane Hume has stressed the necessity for NDIS spending growth to align with GDP growth, currently at 1.3%, describing the programme as unmanageable. Treasurer Jim Chalmers warned that such cuts would adversely affect the 692,000 NDIS participants, suggesting the Coalition has 'secret plans for cuts.'

Coalition denies plans to slash NDIS, but says cost is 'out of control'

by The Guardian

The Coalition has refuted Labor's claims that it intends to cut the NDIS, acknowledging, however, that the programme's costs are escalating. Shadow Public Service Minister Jane Hume highlighted concerns about the rising expenses, emphasising the need for cost-control measures, while opposition spokesperson Michael Sukkar dismissed allegations of planned cuts as false.

Debt nudges $1 trillion as budget returns to deficit

by AAP

Australia will hit a record level of debt when the government unveils a federal budget that shows a structural worsening in the bottom line.

Australia is sowing the seeds of a productivity disaster

by MacroBusiness

Harry Ottley, economist at CBA, published a terrific set of charts showing the explosion in non-market jobs, where there is often a lack of market prices and wages are heavily subsidised by the government, and the implications for Australia’s labour productivity.