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In what’s likely to become a highly controversial report, the Grattan Institute’s delivered a stark warning: the National Disability Insurance Scheme is at risk of becoming unsustainable unless urgent changes are made.

In a major report released today the respected think tank has called for a fundamental rethink of how disability supports are delivered in Australia — including stronger boundaries around who the NDIS is for, a radical shift in how supports are delivered, and a new National Disability Agreement to unite fractured systems.

“More spending hasn’t delivered better results,” the report concludes, warning that while the NDIS now serves nearly 650,000 people, it excludes most Australians with disability, and too much of the scheme’s funding is going to people whose needs might be better met elsewhere.

Without new money, Grattan argues governments can make the scheme more sustainable — and more effective — by building a strong, non-NDIS support system outside the scheme’s core. This means fully funding “foundational supports” using existing NDIS contributions, not new investment.

The analysis will be welcomed by the federal government, which has promised to moderate NDIS growth to 8% per year by 2026 but is facing increasing flack as it begins to implement cuts as changes have sparked concern among service providers, participants, and advocacy groups.

The Budget projects nearly $1 billion in immediate savings from the NDIS for the upcoming financial year and measures already announced reflect the government's efforts to curb the rapid growth of the NDIS.

With no changes to the scheme, this is projected to cost $52.3 billion in 2025–26 and up to $63.4 billion by 2028–29. While aimed at ensuring the scheme's sustainability, the changes have prompted calls for greater transparency and the establishment of robust alternative support systems to prevent vulnerable individuals from falling through the cracks.

According to Grattan, however, even these measures will not be enough. Without structural change, costs will continue spiralling toward $58 billion a year by 2028, risking the sustainability of the scheme for those who truly need it.

Read More: Grattan’s plan to shift billions — and help more disabled Australians.

As our Big Story (above) spelled out, the NDIS’ cost has grown so dramatically from initial predictions that the government has now decided to begin cutting. It’s problem is that every cuts hurts an individual - and people who are losing out yell and scream.

The first three stories in today’s Wrap (below) clearly show how this is playing out politically. The first warns the schemes effectively becoming unsustainable; the next about how the coming cuts will disproportionally hit the vulnerable.

Confused about which side to take in the argument the third article (from Australia’s most popular tabloid), simply outlines what the new arrangements mean.

The question is, will the screams be loud enough to force the government to listen?

Nic Stuart, editor, [email protected]