For the first time in a landmark study, researchers have compared all Australians under 65 living with disability—including those who are and aren’t in the NDIS—and the findings are sobering.

The headline number is this: only 1 in 7 Australians with disability under 65 are in the NDIS. That leaves 1.9 million people effectively dependent on ad hoc systems that were never designed to carry this load.

These aren’t low-needs individuals. Far from it. It is a real issue - but one that’s not being addressed by the NDIS and this fact alone makes it dynamite.

More importantly, it reveals Anthony Albanese’s thinking behind handing the NDIS to one minister - well, two really, Jenny McAllister and Mark Butler - while still leaving responsibility for issues surrounding disability with Tanya Plibersek and Social Services.

The study found that hundreds of thousands of these non-NDIS Australians require help with crucial activities of daily living—things like managing emotions, keeping up with household chores, or getting to medical appointments. In fact, over half a million people without NDIS support report needing help with either transport or emotional tasks. Many are managing multiple disabilities, using assistive equipment, or requiring help to live independently.

What’s striking is that these needs mirror the type of support offered under the NDIS. But these Australians aren’t getting that help—not because their disability is less severe, but often because the system hasn’t reached them. Geography, age, and socioeconomic status remain silent barriers to support.

This is more than a service gap. It’s a systems failure.

The NDIS was never meant to serve everyone. But when the “mainstream systems”—schools, hospitals, workplaces, transport, housing—don’t step in, people fall through. And when those needs escalate, the government’s only backstop is to expand the NDIS itself.

That’s the trap.

Avoiding it will require serious investment: in transport access, personal care services, mobility equipment, mental health support, and foundational systems that make independence possible. These aren't NDIS luxuries—they're basic rights, promised under Australia’s commitments to the UN Convention on the Rights of Persons with Disabilities.

Yet the research also highlights a disturbing gap in our knowledge: we don’t actually know who is providing support to the 1.9 million Australians outside the NDIS. Is it family? Friends? Volunteers? Burnt-out mothers and ageing spouses? If we don’t understand how these people are coping, we cannot plan for what comes next.

The reality is that disability is growing in Australia. The 2022 Survey of Disability, Ageing and Carers (SDAC) shows a rising prevalence. Meanwhile, reforms to NDIS eligibility and independent assessments could inadvertently increase inequality—especially if people must shoulder the cost of proving they’re “disabled enough.”

This research should not gather dust. It must inform the coming wave of reform and budget investment. Otherwise, we risk two failures: one, letting people languish in silence without support, and two, watching NDIS costs surge when there may be better ways of addressing the fundamental problem.

Either way, action is needed if the disability is to be addressed as an integrated issue. The NDIS by itself can no longer be regarded as a complete solution.