Almost 2000 Victorians with profound disabilities could lose their group homes when state subsidies end later this year. On Sunday The Age newspaper reported exclusively on the families and providers warning of evictions, closures, and collapse of care for residents.

Jeremy Soafkin lived in his Camberwell group home for 17 years. Now, at 37, his mother Cheryl is being told he may have to leave. The operator, Scope, says the house will shut within months. Jeremy doesn’t know the magnitude of what’s coming.

The Age reported on the human face of a looming collapse. Almost 2000 residents in Victoria’s supported independent living homes - people with severe autism, epilepsy, and other complex conditions - are on the edge of eviction. The reason? A funding stand-off between Canberra and Spring Street.

When the NDIS began Victoria agreed to hand over control of its group homes to five large not-for-profit providers: Aruma, Scope, Life Without Barriers, Melba Support Services and Possability. To smooth the transition, the state pumped in $2.1 billion to keep wages and conditions in line with the old government system. But those subsidies end on December 31.

Providers say they’re already cutting back with sixty homes closing in the past two years. The sector now has, on average, only a month’s cash in reserve. “There have been dozens of closures already,” Aruma’s Martin Laverty says. “There are tragically more to come.”

The Health and Community Services Union is blunt: “Five thousand of Victoria’s most vulnerable people will potentially be left homeless,” Victorian branch secretary Paul Healey warns.

The governments insist they’re working together, but time is running out. Families like the Soafkin’s need certainty, and a roof over their heads, now.

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The system unravels

As The Age reported, this isn’t a sudden shock. It has been known for eight years that Victoria’s transition subsidies would end on December 31, 2025. The design flaw was obvious from the start: NDIS payments don’t fully cover the costs of running high-needs group homes. The result is predictable. Homes are closing, staff are leaving, families are panicking.

Almost 5000 Victorians are living in supported independent living (SIL) across the state. About 2000 are in homes that used to be state-run. These carry higher wage costs and staffing standards, costs never matched by NDIS plans. For three years, providers have absorbed deficits. Now, without the state subsidy, they say the model is simply unviable.

Cash running out

The five providers - Aruma, Scope, Life Without Barriers, Melba, and Possability - issued a rare joint statement confirming the crisis.

The Age reported that some providers now confront a crisis of liquidity. This caused particular distress to some residents, family members, and other supporters - especially of Melba Support Services. The organisation’s acting CEO, Melissa Webster, quickly made the following statement to reassure its community.

“I want to be clear from the outset: Melba remains financially sustainable, with strong governance, independent audits and prudent financial management in place,” she said. “I also want to reassure everyone in the Melba community that no person living in Melba SIL accommodation will be left without a place to live on 1 January.”

Webster added that the Age’s article did, correctly, highlight real challenges across the sector.

“Current NDIS pricing for SIL does not cover the true cost of delivering safe, high-quality 24/7 support, particularly for people with complex needs,” She added. “This puts pressure on registered providers and, ultimately, on people with disability – an outcome that is unacceptable.”

“We are working actively with government, the NDIA, and sector partners to find sustainable solutions that reflect the real cost of quality care and ensure people’s housing and supports remain secure.

Laverty, a former NDIA board member, is blunt.

“The viability of not-for-profit registered providers has become so fragile that it is well below the safe level.”

The numbers tell the story: 59 group homes closed already, 1985 residents exposed, and the clock ticking down.

The union’s alarm

This is also about survival for the workers. Enterprise agreements lock in higher pay rates than the NDIS covers. If homes close, staff face losing both jobs and entitlements.

“The Victorian government simply cannot absolve themselves,” says union secretary Paul Healey. “The answer cannot be that disability workers lose a third of their wages and conditions while families are beside themselves with worry.”

Government response

The NDIA insists “specialist teams” are ready to help participants transfer if providers fail and NDIS Minister Jenny McAllister points to $45 million in support for quality providers. Victoria says it has already contributed $3.2 billion to the scheme and continues to “advocate” for higher plan funding.

None of this represents a fix.

As the NDIS was introduced many advocates assumed SIL group houses would be phased out. Other forms of accommodation were seen as being more preferable. But the reality is that no ‘one size fits all’ solution is unsuitable for everyone, including people with disability.

Now, unless the government shows some flexibility, it seems as if they will be forceably evicted.

Families caught in the middle

As the Age reported, it’s families like Cheryl Soafkin’s that are suffering from this political shadow-boxing.

Her son Jeremy doesn’t understand what eviction would mean. She is trying to shield him from the stress while desperately searching for an alternative. “These are people,” she says. “You can’t just shove somebody into a house where there are other residents and he would be an inappropriate match.”

The fear is simple. January 1 could dawn with hundreds of profoundly disabled Victorians effectively homeless.

The politics of neglect

This isn’t just about budgets. It’s about trust. When Victoria shut Colac’s Colanda institution in 2019, the promise was smaller, personalised homes. Families believed they were securing stability. Instead, they’re now facing chaos and uncertainty.

What happens next is a test of both governments’ credibility. If the NDIS can’t sustain the most vulnerable - people with ventilators, epilepsy, and lifelong dependence - what exactly is the point?

The clock is ticking and the cash is almost gone. Unless Canberra and Spring Street strike a deal, a cliff is coming. The people pushed over it will be those least able to climb back.