Mark Butler is pushing ahead with two controversial changes to the NDIS. So far, opposition has been muted. There is little sign -so far - of this becoming a significant political issue.

Over the past three weeks, Health and NDIS Minister Mark Butler has unveiled two sweeping and controversial changes to the National Disability Insurance Scheme. One involves a sharp cut in travel funding and therapy pricing that disproportionately affects regional participants. The other: a pivot to restrict autism-related supports, focusing instead on “functional impairment” over diagnosis.

Together, these measures represent a significant shift in how the NDIS will operate — particularly for people outside major cities.

And yet, remarkably, the backlash has been muted.

Although peak bodies and advocacy groups have voiced alarm (see our earlier reports on OTA's petition and other condemnations of pricing changes), political resistance remains curiously absent. The Coalition, historically eager to prosecute alleged NDIS "blowouts", is silent. The Greens — despite their claims to support the sector — have yet to raise the issue meaningfully.

Only regional MP’s are so far showing any real fight. Unsurprisingly, they're focused on the rural angle.

This lack of broader opposition has created a rare moment of political quiet. Butler understands this and is using it to push ahead with the changes. The question is, will it last?

As the impact of the changes begin to hit families, providers and local economies, especially in the regions, pressure will build. The real question is not whether there will be backlash — but who will harness it when it finally arrives.

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As abilityNEWS has reported, therapists are already warning of an exodus from the NDIS. Regional OTs, who’ve endured stagnant pricing for seven years, now face a halving of travel funding. Many say they simply won’t be able to reach participants anymore.

Likewise, families with autistic children fear being pushed out of the scheme under a new “needs-based” assessment regime that doesn’t guarantee support even after a formal diagnosis.

Yet, despite the real-world consequences, these changes have largely escaped public attention. This is, in part, a matter of political timing. No elections loom and the political cycle is quiet. Butler’s reforms are not just slipping through the cracks, they’re walking through a gaping hole. A fragmented disability advocacy sector hasn’t helped either.

This may be about to change. Behind the scenes, groups like Occupational Therapy Australia and other specialist therapy providers are coordinating responses. Meanwhile, Nationals MPs (or former Nationals) are making this a local issue in areas that could soon lose access to services.

But this is unlikely to trouble Labor, which doesn’t hold many seats in the regions.

For political nurds, the three links below are to the Minister’s three most recent press conferences this week. It’s only really the final one (last Wednesday) where this issue is raised in the final two questions. Butler successfully and quickly brushes it aside.