The abilityNEWS Daily
The Big Story
Cost growth the biggest danger for the NDIS
Just how much is the country prepared to spend on disability support?
In yesterday’s Guardian, Greg Jericho provided the above graph which examines the cost of the NDIS for the budget’s bottom line. He added a comment.
“As for overall spending,” he said, “we have a range of commentators weirdly trying to compare the amount the government is spending now with how much it spent before the NDIS was introduced. Once we take that disability support, not only is this budget not a big-spending one, it is actually downright measly”.
Unfortunately though, this dramatically exposes the growing cost of the NDIS.
The Financial Review used this to take another line. It focused on exactly the disability support Jericho was pulling out, but this time labeling it as profligacy.
“The NDIS is still out of control. The 10 per cent increase in the past year in NDIS spending is higher than the government’s planned 8 per cent “cap”. Moreover, as teal MP Allegra Spender says, such a high level of continuing expenditure growth would jeopardise public support for the scheme. Whoever forms the next government must face up to the need for a combination of tightening eligibility rules and cutting per-person funding packages to make the NDIS financially sustainable.”
The forecast $52 billion cost of the NDIS is bigger than the $51 billion allocated to the defence budget, vital to safeguarding national security.
This poses an existential danger to support for the scheme.
Particularly before any election, opinion pollsters work overtime. One of their vital tasks is to work on framing, or how to present issues so the answer is ‘obvious’. Because defence is seen by most voters as being more important than disability care, this offers a very simple line of attack for the opposition.
Asking if Labor should be spending more on disability than defence exposes the government’s vulnerability on this issue.
When he was Minister, Bill Shorten focused on the need to crack down on ‘shonks’ supposedly exploiting the NDIS. The Liberals can use this to say it’s not the scheme they’re opposed to, but rather that the cost blow-out is directly related to fraud.
This delivers a dream political trifecta for the opposition. They can claim to be for the scheme and pro disability care, but insist the government is simply incapable when it comes to administering it. They can use Shorten’s words against Labor by pointing to ‘rorting’. Finally, they can bank purported savings and use them for tax cuts elsewhere.
This is a dangerous political vulnerability for the government and, by extension, the NDIS. The growing cost of the scheme is threatening its very existence.
Editor’s Note
Today’s issue focuses on the increased spending on the NDIS. Our point is not to suggest this is too high - we are instead drawing attention to the increasing political risk that comes with this growing cost.
Tuesday’s Budget failed to deliver a convincing path to sustainability. It also highlighted that the NDIS is still growing faster than the economy. The result will inevitably end in tears.
Nic Stuart, editor
The Briefing
Joint Statement: People with disability invisible in Federal Budget
by People with Disability Australia
The Federal Budget includes cuts to the NDIS, sparking concerns about inadequate support for people with disability. Critics argue the budget lacks clear commitments to essential services, leaving many without alternatives.
2025–26 Federal Budget: What it means for advocacy
by Disability Advocacy Network Australia
The Federal Budget continues to overlook people with disability, with no new funding for advocacy, appeals, or Royal Commission reforms. NDIS spending is being cut despite rising demand, while financial support for people with disability remains unchanged.
Media Release: Federal Budget: Cost relief welcome but long-term reform ambitions missing for disability
by Advocacy for Inclusion
Advocacy for Inclusion has welcomed cost relief for people with disability in the Federal Budget but criticised the lack of long-term reform. Key concerns include minimal investment beyond the NDIS, no increase to income support, and uncertainty over foundational supports.
WWDA responds to the 2025-26 Federal Budget
Women With Disabilities Australia (WWDA) acknowledges investments in health and safety but criticises the Federal Budget for overlooking specific needs. The organisation urges targeted reforms to improve economic security, disability support, and protections against violence for women with disabilities.
People With Disability Invisible in Federal Budget. Media Statement from Australia’s Disability Representative Organisations
by Disability Advocacy Network Australia
The Federal Budget includes nearly $1 billion in NDIS cuts but lacks clarity on alternative disability support funding. Disability advocates say the Budget neglects key concerns, leaving many without essential services and ignoring Royal Commission findings.
NMHCCF Submission to the Productivity Commission on the National Mental Health and Suicide Prevention Agreement Review
The National Mental Health Consumer and Carer Forum has urged the Australian Government to prioritise lived experience in mental health reforms. Its submission highlights systemic issues and calls for stronger community-based support and peer-led crisis services.
Clinical Care and Research Article
by Down Syndrome Australia
A study by Australian researchers and Down Syndrome WA has identified key clinical care and research priorities for children with Down syndrome. The findings were shaped by insights from families and community advocates to address the most pressing health needs.
Use your voice to vote with intention
by Cerebral Palsy Alliance
Politics once felt distant, but understanding its impact has made voting a vital tool for personal and collective advocacy. Learning about party policies, especially on disability rights, helps ensure informed decisions that support meaningful change.
The Wrap