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Tonight’s Budget is now the instrument of NDIS reform.

NDIS cuts will provide $37 billion of the $45 billion (or 82 per cent) the government calculates it will bank in savings over the next four years. Every dollar of new spending has to come from somewhere. Most will come courtesy of the NDIS.

The Government’s reform story has shifted from design to fiscal execution. The NDIS is no longer discussed as a service system; it is written into the Budget as a savings measure.

The new bill flagged after the Budget will be critical, placing foundational supports at the centre of the change. Participants, families, providers, states and territories are now all grappling with the same question: what supports will exist outside the NDIS.

Forget the nice verbiage. Because four out of every five new dollars the government will spend tonight comes straight from the NDIS, cutting the cost of disability is central. It is critical to the Budget strategy and a critical part of the government’s agenda.

Risk: The Budget may book the savings before the support system outside the NDIS is ready.

Opportunity: The Budget and bill process could force the Government to define, fund and sequence foundational supports clearly enough for participants and families to judge whether the promise is real.

Government flags new NDIS bill after Budget

The NDIS website says the Government will introduce the National Disability Insurance Scheme Amendment (Securing the NDIS for Future Generations) Bill following release of the 2026–27 Budget. This is a procedural but important marker that confirms that the next legislative stage of the Government’s NDIS reform package is baked-in to tonight’s Budget.
NDIS

Butler says foundational supports are the core decision

NDIS Minister Mark Butler says the move toward supports outside the NDIS is a “big change”. He describes it as returning the scheme’s to its original intent: for people with permanent significant disability. Other supports for people with less severe or less significant needs will be found outside the scheme. He says the “devil will be in the detail” of negotiations with states, territories and the disability community, arguing all governments have signed on to the principle of foundational supports.
Department of Health, Disability and Ageing / Mark Butler | minister

Butler addresses NSW and Victoria Thriving Kids funding differences

Asked why NSW and Victoria bilateral figures for Thriving Kids differed despite NSW having a larger population, Butler says both states have already signed agreements consistent with the overall framework, adding if states want to “do a little bit extra”, that was up to them.
Department of Health, Disability and Ageing / Mark Butler | minister

NDIS updates “new way of planning” page

The NDIA updated its “A new way of planning” page on 11 May. The page itself is light on substantive detail, but is linked to broader reforms before the Budget and new legislation.
NDIS

NDIS updates legislative change guidance

This NDIS legislative guidance page explains how access decisions, disability requirements, early intervention requirements, impairment notices and NDIS supports are being framed under the current legislative changes. The guidance says the NDIA will tell applicants whether they have met disability requirements, early intervention requirements or both, and notes that some changes apply to new access requests from 3 October 2024 while future pathways are still being designed.
NDIS

NDIA updates CALD Expert Advisory Group page

The NDIA’s CALD Expert Advisory Group page sets out the group’s role advising on improved experiences and outcomes for culturally and linguistically diverse people with disability. The membership list includes representatives or experts connected with PWDA, DANA, Inclusion Australia, Mental Health Australia, Deaf Australia, Amparo Advocacy and other community bodies.
NDIS

Deaf Australia warns NDIS changes may affect Deaf participants

Deaf Australia published an NDIS update setting out concerns for Deaf participants, particularly around reduced spending on social and community participation, capacity building and the shift toward functional capacity rather than diagnosis. The organisation is asking members and the Deaf community to provide feedback in Auslan or English so it can continue advocacy with government.
Deaf Australia

Blind Citizens Australia policy update flags NDIS response

Blind Citizens Australia has outlined BCA’s response to the NDIS minister’s recent proposed changes and introduce Stephanie Peebles, a new staff member.
Blind Citizens Australia

Physiotherapy peak lists new NDIS and foundational supports submissions

The Australian Physiotherapy Association’s Disability/NDIS page has details of its submissions on NSW Market Insights regarding Foundational Supports for Children, the 2025–26 NDIS Annual Pricing Review consultation, and the Thriving Kids Initiative.
Australian Physiotherapy Association

Occupational Therapy Australia reviews Victorian Budget measures

Occupational Therapy Australia’s policy and advocacy update says it has reviewed the 2026–27 Victorian Budget for measures relevant to occupational therapy, including continued funding for the Speech Pathology and Occupational Therapy Student Program.
Occupational Therapy Australia

Infoxchange launches national NFP digital capability collaboration

Infoxchange announced NFP Digital Futures, a sector-led initiative to strengthen digital capability across Australia’s not-for-profit sector, including cyber security, data capability and responsible AI adoption. It targets NFP capability and includes cross-sector partners working on shared tools, infrastructure and responsible technology.
Infoxchange

Croakey analysis questions psychosocial care assumptions in NDIS reform

The excellent health information website Croakey has published analysis arguing that NDIS growth is not primarily explained by psychosocial disability participant numbers. It notes that psychosocial participant numbers are close to original estimates, while overall scheme participation has grown substantially. The piece argues that shifting responsibilities to states and territories raises serious capacity questions for psychosocial supports outside the NDIS.
Croakey Health Media

NDIS provider avoids jail for defrauding scheme in bid to keep business 'afloat'

An Adelaide man has avoided jail after defrauding the NDIS of more than $58,000, with the court told the offending was linked to efforts to keep an NDIS provider business afloat. Adrian Cameron Bembrick was given a two-year good-behaviour bond.
ABC | Paywall: No

NDIS savings of $170bn as growth tipped to plummet

Tuesday’s Budget is expected to show NDIS growth falling sharply, with projected savings of about $170 billion over a decade. The Australian’s preview reports concerns that savings may be difficult to realise if states seek more Commonwealth funding for supports outside the NDIS.
The Australian | Paywall: Yes

Jim Chalmers’ federal budget 2026: what we know so far about tax, housing, fuel and broken promises

The Guardian’s Budget preview says the Government is dramatically reducing NDIS growth, with about 160,000 people expected to be removed from the scheme and growth brought down from more than 10 per cent to about 2 per cent a year.
The Guardian | Paywall: No

Budget contains $45bn bottom-line improvement over four years as Jim Chalmers promises ‘spending restraint’

Frameing the NDIS cuts as one of the largest savings measures in the Budget package, The Guardian says this will show a $45 billion improvement in the Commonwealth bottom line over four years. Pre-announced NDIS changes are estimated $37 billion of this.
The Guardian | Paywall: No

Queensland man pioneers app to fly drones using head movements

ABC Sunshine Coast profiles Christopher Hills, a quadriplegic man with cerebral palsy who has developed an app allowing him to control a drone using head movements and adaptive technology. It’s a good disability-access and assistive-technology feature.
ABC | Paywall: No

In the second of a two-part review, Peter Strong, former CEO of COSBOA, looks back at a disability system that was once more locally embedded, relational and connected to work, training and community services. He argues that with the introduction of the NDIS market model, something vital has been lost.

Thin markets and fragmentation is now the problem. The system measures transactions and placements more easily than participation, continuity and citizenship.

Peter Strong’s answer is deliberately provocative. Bring back the CES. Not literally, perhaps. But bring back what it represented at its best: local knowledge, public coordination and relationships that lasted longer than a contract cycle.

A key institutional milestone came with the Disability Services Act 1986, marking a shift toward funding services that supported integration and community participation. It also formalised expectations around quality, accountability, and the role of governments in shaping services, rather than merely funding passive care.

From the 1990s into the early 2000s, policy continued to evolve around inclusion - particularly in education and employment.

But as a whole, the system remained fragmented across states and programs, with funding complexity often falling on families to navigate. Support was still largely supply-driven. Services that existed determined what participation was possible, rather than individual need driving flexible support.

The parallel growth of contracted employment services reinforced fragmentation, separating employment assistance from broader community and social supports.

The most significant structural shift in recent history arrived with the introduction of the National Disability Insurance Scheme (NDIS), legislated in 2013 and progressively rolled out.

The NDIS represented a seismic change. Instead of block-funded services, it introduced individualised funding packages intended to give people choice and control over supports. In principle, it reframed disability support from a welfare entitlement to a participation investment.

That was the promise.

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