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The end of a parliamentary week offers a great opportunity for government to drop information it doesn’t want closely examined. That’s why nobody noticed the sudden surge in numbers dropping off the NDIS by the end of the decade. It’s not 241,000 but actually 346,000 being moved off the scheme.

The number first reported was brutal enough.

A Treasury document tabled in the Senate late last Thursday, just before it rose for the weekend, showed 241,000 people already on the NDIS before 1 January 2028 are expected to be off the scheme by 30 June 2031. Guardian Australia reported the figure last week. It was not a leak. It was Treasury modelling.

But the table actually says something more.

Read it carefully and it becomes clear that before the reforms, the NDIS was expected to have 944,000 participants. If 241,000 existing participants are removed, that would still leave about 703,000 people in the scheme.

Nevertheless Treasury’s post-reform estimate shows just 598,000 in the scheme and that’s the missing number. Another 105,000 people.

Not 241,000 fewer than otherwise, but 346,000 fewer.

To be fair the Mark Butler, that’s what he told the National Press Club back in April - it would reduce the number in the NDIS to “about 600,000” by the end of the decade. What’s news is that this number is an extra 185,000 below even today's estimate.

This is the sharper point. The NDIS is not merely being slowed - it’s being shrunk.

Government insists the scheme will be sustainable and points to foundational supports.

But those supports are still promises. Treasury figures on exit numbers are not.

[story continues on the abilityNEWS website]

Senate estimates begins Health, Disability and Ageing hearings

The Senate Community Affairs Legislation Committee began 2026–27 Budget estimates hearings for the Health, Disability and Ageing portfolio, listing both yesterday and today for hearings.

Parliament of Australia

NDIS Commission issues new national banning orders

The NDIS Quality and Safeguards Commission’s compliance register lists multiple banning orders taking effect from 5pm on 2 June. The orders prohibit named people from providing or being involved in NDIS supports and services.

NDIS Quality and Safeguards Commission

Government launches national peer workforce association

The Australian Government has launched a national professional association to recognise, support and grow the mental health and suicide prevention peer workforce. Not an NDIS measure, but relevant to psychosocial disability and workforce development.

Department of Health, Disability and Ageing | Assistant Minister Emma McBride

Disability Representative Organisations call for NDIS Bill to be paused

People with Disability Australia published a joint Disability Representative Organisations submission to the Senate inquiry into the NDIS Future Generations Bill. The submission says the Bill should not proceed in its current form or within the current timeframe.

People with Disability Australia

NDS begins state and territory conference series

National Disability Services’ state and territory conference series began in Darwin yesterday under the theme “Insights to Action”. The event is one of the organisation’s provider-sector forums.

National Disability Services

Team DSC reform timeline provides useful background

Team DSC’s NDIS change timeline continues to track the proposed implementation points for the current reform package, including the Government’s target for passage, social and community participation budget reductions and the expected timing of eligibility work.

Team DSC

Human Rights Commission holds ‘serious concerns’ about Labor’s NDIS laws

The Sydney Morning Herald reports the Australian Human Rights Commission’s “serious concerns” about Labor’s NDIS legislation. Disability Discrimination Commissioner Rosemary Kayess warned the consultation period is inadequate and the proposed laws risk undermining autonomy, independent living, and inclusion.

Sydney Morning Herald | Paywall: likely

Government committee warns NDIS overhaul will ‘harm’ Australians with disabilities

Guardian Australia reports the NDIS Reform Advisory Committee is warning the proposed overhaul will cause “material harm”, undermine the Scheme’s original intentions and concentrate unprecedented power in the health minister.

Guardian Australia | Paywall: No

Luke Dore: 24-hour care for MND patient denied by the NDIS

A Current Affair reports father-of-two Luke Dore lives with motor neurone disease and requires 24-hour care, but the NDIS will not cover it. Dore needs overnight support but the segment is framed around a direct denial of NDIS-funded care.

Nine | Paywall: No

NDIS denies 24-hour care for MND patient

9Now published the A Current Affair video segment on Luke Dore, saying the father-of-two lives with motor neurone disease and requires 24-hour care, especially at night, but the NDIS will not cover it.

9Now | Paywall: No

NDIS reforms: Families fear return to ‘revolving door’ of care

The Australian reports families of severely disabled children fear the NDIS reforms could force them back towards a “revolving door” of unqualified carers. Concern centres on tighter registration rules and reduced access to trusted traders and self-managed care.

The Australian | Paywall: Yes