courtesy PS News [photo: Michelle Kroll]

The government thinks the launch of its Thrive program for children with autism has gone well. Although largely condemned by parents, other political parties aren’t picking up on the call to challenge the reforms. Opponents haven’t found a rallying point. Yet.

Dr Sharon Zivkovic, founder of Community Capacity Builders has no doubt. “Wednesday’s speech by the Minister was a sad day for democracy. I feel that a lot of the good faith that was built between the Australian Government and the community during the co-design process of the National Autism Strategy evaporated.”

Her comments directly reflect the feelings of most of the groups working in this space. Despair, anger, and powerlessness. A feeling of being excluded. Again.

All of the effort that has gone into the development of the National Autism Strategy 2025-2031, including its guiding principles of “In partnership - Nothing about us, without us” and “Neurodiversity-Affirming, Individualised and Holistic” became meaningless on Wednesday when the Minister decided to ignore what was co-designed in the National Autism Strategy

Dr Sharon Zivkovic

So why is the government satisfied? The reason is simple: opposition to Thrive has been limited, so far, to angry parents. The coalition is divided (as this story about Liberal MP Phil Thompson - parent of an autistic child - emphasises) and the Greens, silent.

The key to the future of Thrive will be revealed in parliament this week.

By unveiling the details in a non-sitting week the government achieved its desired result. The changes were presented as a fait accompli. Unless opposition builds quickly, it will continue ploughing ahead with the reforms.

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There are only three ways Thrive can be stopped. In parliament, by the states, or by growing individual protests in the media and to MP's.

That’s why the government won’t be unhappy about tonight’s Four Corners. It’s an almost hour-long report exposing fraud, waste, shattered trust, and botched projects in disability housing.

None of this is news for the sector and it’s got nothing to do with Thrive. It will, however, reinforce the idea the NDIS needs cleaning up. This will strengthen Mark Butler’s hand as he moves forward with those other changes - even though they’re completely unrelated.

Butler took a deliberate risk when he announced the plan without clearing it with the states first. He’s relying on the fact that he’s got Anthony Albanese’s blessing to push ahead regardless.

The story has now been reduced to a simple political equation: who’s better prepared? Can Butler roll-out the scheme faster than opposition, from parents, the coalition, or the states, can coalesce?

And early signs the states might block the amendments are beginning to look weak.

Over in Perth, Youth Minister Hannah Beazley has already suggested that state might sign on to the reform. And in Canberra, if the coalition joins with the government, the Greens will return to irrelevance.

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