Advocates are winning the debate about the need for the NDIS, but they still can’t find a way to address the escalating cost of the scheme. That’s the vital gap in their argument.

The first day belonged to the advocates. Witness after witness told the Senate inquiry Labor’s NDIS Bill should be withdrawn, paused or rewritten. The old language of need remains strong.

But winning this argument doesn’t address the one vital issue - how to address the enormous blowout in the scheme’s cost.

Labor’s case is simple: it costs more than $50 billion and is growing too quickly. Whether they want to or not, the scheme’s supporters must find a formula capable of answering this budget problem while still keeping the scheme intact.

So far they haven’t.

The critical test is not winning three days of media headlines. It’s winning votes in parliament.

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The hearings opened where they were always going to open. Children and Young People with Disability Australia’s Skye Kakoschke-Moore said expecting parents to provide the work of skilled support teams risked further crisis and carer burnout. This is where advocates are strongest.

It’s powerful evidence but it fails to address the cost.

When the only language some people understand is numbers, if you want to change their mind you need to speak in terms of numbers, not need.

Alternatives must be visible. At the moment they’re not.

The NDIS is expensive and growing. The Government says it must act now to protect the Scheme later. Senior Labor minister Murray Watt put the argument plainly: without action, Australia risks a future government making “massive unfair cuts” and depriving people of support.

Advocates can call the Bill cruel. They can call it rushed. They can call it dangerous. But none of that, by itself, answers the fiscal questions: what growth rate is acceptable and where can savings be made?

The Grattan Institute has argued the Scheme can be put on a sustainable footing without “blunt cuts” to short-term Budget savings. A simple, alternative road map is needed to force the government to recognise there are other paths.

The Greens oppose the Bill. Senator Jordon Steele-John said every witness on day one had called for withdrawal, rejection in current form, or more time.

That is noise. Useful noise. Necessary noise. But just noise without the Coalition.

Coalition NDIS spokesperson Melissa McIntosh said the Government needed to provide more detail before the Opposition would offer support. That is not the same as blocking the Bill; it’s a demand for leverage.

The hearings can embarrass the Government but without a compromise formula, it will proceed with the bill. It needs the $40 billion in savings to pay for other programs. Programs voters will benefit from.